March 28, 2026
Trucking spot rates just hit a cycle high. Diesel got them there.
The SONAR NTI.USA index is at $3 a mile, but the linehaul rate — what carriers actually get paid for the truck — hasn't yet recovered to where it...
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Resolved Mar 29, 2026
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.00/mile by March 31, 2026?
Binary (Yes/No)
Probability Over Time
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Resolution Details
Resolution Date
March 29, 2026
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA reads above $3.00/mile on March 31, 2026. Resolves NO if NTI.USA reads at or below $3.00/mile. NTI.USA is the all-in rate including fuel surcharge. Source: FreightWaves SONAR.
Additional Context
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
Recent Activity
A forecaster predicted YesMar 28, 2026
A forecaster predicted YesMar 24, 2026
A forecaster predicted NoMar 15, 2026
A forecaster predicted NoMar 13, 2026
A forecaster predicted NoMar 12, 2026
Series
Part 1 of 4 in NTI Monthly 2026
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Part 1
Current
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.00/mile by March 31, 2026?
OTR Solutions President Clayton Griffin challenged FreightWaves' Craig Fuller to a $5,000 charity bet on whether the national spot truckload rate breaks $3.00/mile by the end of March. Griffin is taking the under. Fuller is taking the over. The barometer is FreightWaves SONAR NTI.USA, the national truckload index, which reflects the all-in spot rate per mile including fuel surcharge. The reading in mid-February is around $2.78/mile, meaning rates would need to climb roughly 8% in the next six weeks for the over to hit. How bullish are you?
Resolved: YesView market
rates
Part 2
Resolved
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.10/mile by the end of May 2026?
The Sonar NTI.USA is the national truckload index tracking all-in spot rates per mile including fuel surcharge. It broke above $3.00 in late March, lifted in part by the diesel spike from the Iran-Hormuz conflict. May typically sees seasonal produce and retail freight push spot truckload volumes higher. This market asks whether spot rates can close the month above $3.10 on the last business day. ACT Research reported a driver shortage re-emerging in March 2026, and diesel remains above $4.50 per gallon. The question is whether the rate strength persists if fuel prices pull back.
Resolved: YesView market
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Part 3
Open
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.15/mile by the end of June 2026?
June sits in the heart of the summer shipping season, historically one of the stronger months for spot truckload demand. Beverage, produce and consumer goods freight peaks as retailers push inventory for Q3. The Sonar NTI.USA national truckload index must close the month above $3.15 to resolve YES. With capacity contracting and ACT Research noting the For-Hire Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.0 in March 2026, supply-side pressure supports rate firmness. Fuel remains a wildcard: if Hormuz traffic resumes and diesel drops, the national spot rate could soften even as underlying linehaul rates rise.
Deadline: Jul 2, 2026View market
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Part 4
Open
Will the national spot truckload rate (SONAR NTI.USA) exceed $3.20/mile by the end of July 2026?
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distribution keep trucks loaded, but produce season begins to wind down. Closing above $3.20 on the national truckload index would mark the highest sustained NTI.USA spot pricing since 2022. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was up 1.8% year over year in March 2026, and ACT Research expects contract rates to follow spot gains with a lag. Whether the spot truckload rate can hold $3.20 by month-end depends on the fuel outlook, the pace of carrier exits and how much seasonal demand remains.
Deadline: Aug 3, 2026View market
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