April 4, 2026
The other fluid problem
Diesel gets the headlines. The urea supply chain behind every truck's exhaust system is under the same pressure — and the cost exposure is harder...
Read articleBarchart's US DEF Price Index (HOPAUS02.CM) had national retail DEF at roughly $4.88–4.89/gal on June 30 — the urea/Hormuz squeeze pushed it far above the $2.80–3.80 the market was framed around. Lock the exact cent off the terminal before recording. https://www.barchart.com/futures/cash/energies-indexes/retail-diesel/def
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Barchart's US DEF Price Index (HOPAUS02.CM) had national retail DEF at roughly $4.88–4.89/gal on June 30 — the urea/Hormuz squeeze pushed it far above the $2.80–3.80 the market was framed around. Lock the exact cent off the terminal before recording. https://www.barchart.com/futures/cash/energies-indexes/retail-diesel/def
This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
July 4, 2026
$2.00/gal - $6.00/gal
Urea prices at the NOLA trading hub jumped $70 per short ton in a single week to $468–$620/ton after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 25% of global urea exports. Every $100/ton of urea price movement translates to roughly $0.15/gallon at the DEF pump. Unlike crude oil, there are no strategic urea reserves. The Dyno Nobel Helens plant is closing in early 2026, removing more domestic production. Truck stop DEF has since climbed to roughly $4.80–$4.90/gallon nationally as the squeeze played out. This market asks whether the urea supply squeeze pushes DEF to levels that become a material operating cost, not just an afterthought on the fuel island.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Contract rates have been underwater for 30+ months. Three consecutive months of MoM growth would be the strongest signal yet that the market has...
Flatbed is the hottest truckload segment in the market right now. The national average hit $2.94/mile in March, up 24 cents from February, with l...
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distr...
This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
July 4, 2026
$2.00/gal - $6.00/gal
Urea prices at the NOLA trading hub jumped $70 per short ton in a single week to $468–$620/ton after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 25% of global urea exports. Every $100/ton of urea price movement translates to roughly $0.15/gallon at the DEF pump. Unlike crude oil, there are no strategic urea reserves. The Dyno Nobel Helens plant is closing in early 2026, removing more domestic production. Truck stop DEF has since climbed to roughly $4.80–$4.90/gallon nationally as the squeeze played out. This market asks whether the urea supply squeeze pushes DEF to levels that become a material operating cost, not just an afterthought on the fuel island.
Rig Load Report posts linked directly to this market.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Contract rates have been underwater for 30+ months. Three consecutive months of MoM growth would be the strongest signal yet that the market has...
Flatbed is the hottest truckload segment in the market right now. The national average hit $2.94/mile in March, up 24 cents from February, with l...
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distr...