All 13 Q2 weekly EIA prints landed ≥$4.50 — the quarter ran from ~$5.6 in early May down to $4.67 on June 29, so even the cheapest week cleared it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epd2d_pte_dpgal_w.htm
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This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
July 4, 2026
0 - 13
Diesel is at $5.38/gallon. The EIA's March forecast revised the 2026 average to $4.12 — up 20% from the prior estimate — but that average assumes a decline from current levels as Brent crude is forecast to fall below $80/barrel by Q3. This market isn't asking where diesel ends up — it's asking how long the pain lasts. Every week above $4.50 compounds losses for carriers whose fuel surcharges don't fully offset the cost. The answer depends almost entirely on Hormuz: if shipping resumes, diesel drops fast. If the toll system persists, $4.50+ could be the floor for months.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Contract rates have been underwater for 30+ months. Three consecutive months of MoM growth would be the strongest signal yet that the market has...
Flatbed is the hottest truckload segment in the market right now. The national average hit $2.94/mile in March, up 24 cents from February, with l...
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distr...
All 13 Q2 weekly EIA prints landed ≥$4.50 — the quarter ran from ~$5.6 in early May down to $4.67 on June 29, so even the cheapest week cleared it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epd2d_pte_dpgal_w.htm
This market has been scored against the published resolution criteria. The result, final crowd consensus and source rules are preserved here so readers can compare the forecast with what actually happened.
July 4, 2026
0 - 13
Diesel is at $5.38/gallon. The EIA's March forecast revised the 2026 average to $4.12 — up 20% from the prior estimate — but that average assumes a decline from current levels as Brent crude is forecast to fall below $80/barrel by Q3. This market isn't asking where diesel ends up — it's asking how long the pain lasts. Every week above $4.50 compounds losses for carriers whose fuel surcharges don't fully offset the cost. The answer depends almost entirely on Hormuz: if shipping resumes, diesel drops fast. If the toll system persists, $4.50+ could be the floor for months.
Active markets come first, followed by recently resolved calls from the same category.
Contract rates have been underwater for 30+ months. Three consecutive months of MoM growth would be the strongest signal yet that the market has...
Flatbed is the hottest truckload segment in the market right now. The national average hit $2.94/mile in March, up 24 cents from February, with l...
July is typically when summer freight demand crests before a seasonal pause in August. Retail replenishment for back-to-school and beverage distr...